ZiPS Project A Three Way Battle for Supremacy in AL West
If you thought the AL West was competitive last season, get ready because 2025 is set to be an all out showdown. According to the latest FanGraphs projections, the Texas Rangers, Seattle Mariners, and Houston Astros are in a virtual deadlock to claim the division crown. Each team hovers around a 30 percent chance to win, making this one of the most tightly contested division battles in recent history.
The projections give the Rangers a slight edge at 33 percent, followed closely by the Mariners at 31 percent and the Astros at 30 percent. Meanwhile, the Oakland Athletics at 4 percent and the Los Angeles Angels at 3 percent are left hoping for a miracle. When FanGraphs simulated the season 20,000 times, each of the top three teams won the division roughly 6,000 times each. That kind of parity is rare, and it highlights just how intense this race is expected to be.
Why This Is Unprecedented
In the past decade, no division favorite has entered the season with odds as low as 33 percent. That tells us that not only is this race wide open, but there is not a single dominant team that stands above the rest. Instead, we have three well balanced teams that will have to battle tooth and nail over 162 games to emerge on top.
Seattle’s front office has made it clear how they feel about the team going into this season. After last season’s heartbreaking finish, the stakes could not be higher. The Rangers are still riding the momentum of their 2023 championship and are determined to prove they are the team to beat. Meanwhile, the Astros remain one of the most consistent franchises in baseball and will not go down without a fight.
One thing is certain. The AL West is going to be a battleground from start to finish. Every series is going to matter, every game could have playoff implications, and the margin for error will be razor thin. Mariners fans should prepare themselves as their team fights to claim the top spot in one of baseball’s toughest divisions.
