Can the Mariners Win the AL West in 2025? Here’s What Needs to Happen
An Additional Breakdown from Keep It Electric Podcast
The 2025 AL West race is shaping up to be one of the tightest in recent memory. According to FanGraphs, the Seattle Mariners have a 31% chance of winning the division, just behind the Texas Rangers (33%) and narrowly ahead of the Houston Astros (30%). In other words, this race is wide open, and each team has nearly a 70% chance of falling short.
So, what will it take for the Mariners to come out on top? They have the talent, but everything must fall into place for them to seize the division title. Here’s what needs to happen for Seattle to finally break through.
Keep the Pitching Elite
Seattle’s starting rotation has been its backbone, and that must continue in 2025.
Logan Gilbert had a career year, and while it’s tough to expect him to repeat it, he should remain a top-tier starter.
Luis Castillo had some inconsistencies, but his elite stuff suggests he can stay at a high level.
Bryan Woo, and Bryce Miller are all still developing, and their growth could make the difference.
George Kirby is one to watch, his work ethic and command make him a prime candidate for a Cy Young run. However, even the best rotations can’t carry a team without bullpen stability.
The Bullpen Must Stay Healthy
A dominant bullpen is crucial in a tight division race. If Seattle’s relievers can stay intact, they could be one of the best units in baseball.
Matt Brash returning is a massive boost.
Gregory Santos throwing 100 mph adds another power arm.
Andrés Muñoz closing out games gives the Mariners a top-tier ninth-inning option.
Beyond the big three, arms like Troy Taylor, Tayler Saucedo, Colin Snider, and Trent Thornton provide depth. But the reality is that injuries happen, and the Mariners must be aggressive at the trade deadline if their bullpen begins to falter.
The Offense Must Outperform Expectations
The Mariners’ offense is the biggest question mark. While the rotation isn’t a concern, the lineup must step up.
Victor Robles played out of his mind after coming to Seattle last season, but expecting another .328 average is unrealistic. A .270 hitter with speed and defense is more reasonable.
J.P. Crawford and Jorge Polanco both need bounce-back seasons.
Luke Raley is projected to have a much better year, which could provide much-needed stability.
However, second base remains a weak spot. Dylan Moore isn’t an everyday solution, and prospects like Cole Young and Ryan Bliss could challenge for playing time later in the year. If the Mariners’ offense struggles early, they can’t afford to wait too long to make changes.
Mitch Garver & Mitch Haniger Are Trade Chips
Seattle’s lineup construction raises some concerns, particularly with Mitch Garver and Mitch Haniger. While both players can contribute, they may not be long-term fits.
The best-case scenario? They start hot. If they do, Seattle should trade them midseason to add more depth, particularly in the infield. But the Mariners need roster flexibility, and if Garver or Haniger can bring back a solid bullpen arm or another starter, it’s a move worth making.
Be Ready to Move Luis Castillo If Necessary
This might be a tough pill to swallow, but if the Mariners have glaring weaknesses by midseason, Luis Castillo could be on the trade block.
If Seattle is in the playoff hunt but still lacking in key areas, moving Castillo could be their only option to land a high-impact bat or infielder. While losing an ace is never ideal, the Mariners can’t afford to let a lack of infield production sink their chances.
The Mariners have the talent, but too many things must go right for this roster to be a surefire division winner. If they’re relying on bounce-back seasons, development, and health, they’re taking a huge gamble.
Winning the AL West in 2025 isn’t impossible—but Seattle must be ready to adapt if things don’t go as planned.
